Election Day Breakdown: Race for the White House

*This is an AI generated transcript, and may contain errors*

Mark Harrington (00:00):

It’s five days to election day 2024, and there’s a lot on the line. Probably the most consequential election in my lifetime. We’ve got the presidential race and almost more importantly, we have 10 constitutional amendments on abortion up for grabs. We’ll talk about it today on the program. Hey friends, Mark Harrington here, and if you like what you hear and see on the program, you can go to mark harrington.org and subscribe to the podcast and also follow me on all the social media platforms. Well, today we’re going to be talking about election 2024 from your race predictor. That’s me. Sometimes I get it right, sometimes I don’t get it right, but I’ve got a lot of big ones, right? In the past, I predicted the Obama’s election in 2008. I got the Cavaliers NBA championship in 2016 and Ohio State University’s Championship in 2014. So I’ve done okay, and I’m decent on sports predictions.

(01:15):

I’m better at politics, and I’m going to give you some of my analysis that is regarding the election of 2024 and a few predictions. I know you’ve been waiting with bated breath just to hear what I’m going to tell you today, but hopefully I can give you a few insights into the election for president and more importantly even the constitutional amendment. So let’s jump right in. We’re only five days out. It’s neck and neck for the presidential race. If you look at the real clear politics average, which by the way if you don’t know about real clear politics.com, it is the best website to track the election. Why? Because what it does is averages all the polls. Every single poll that comes out regarding the presidential election or the Battleground states is on real clear politics.com. I’ve been following real clear politics for many election cycles.

(02:13):

It’s a very informative website, and so if you don’t know about it now you do, you can watch it for the next couple of days. What they do is average out the polls, and currently in the national polling, Donald Trump is in the lead over Kamala Harris by 0.5%. That’s how close it is, 0.5%. Now, what’s important about this is if you look at the last two elections in 2020, Biden was according to the real clear politics, Biden was up 7.4% at this time, five days out from the election in 2016, Hillary Clinton was up by 1.3%. So if polling remains, I guess consistent, then Donald Trump’s doing really well in the national polls here. He’s polling better than he was in 2016. He’s pulling a lot better than he was in 2020. Now, we might look and see, well have they fixed their polling because they got it wrong.

(03:17):

In both of these. As you know, Trump beat Clinton and Trump lost to Biden, but only by a razor’s edge. So the polling’s been off. The question is had they fixed the polling, and is this a more accurate picture of where we stand? We don’t know. Of course, the final poll is on November 5th, and we’ll find out then or thereafter. So this is the national polling. Trump is ahead by 0.5 with Harris against Harris in the real clear politics average. This is a good thing for Donald Trump, although it doesn’t matter if he wins the national poll or the National Election popular vote because we have an electoral college. So what I’d like to do now is just go through each one of these battleground states real quickly and show you where Donald Trump stands as regards the battleground states, which of course, they’re the ones that matter, and there are seven of those.

(04:14):

Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina and Georgia. Those are the battleground states. Those are the ones that are going to determine the election for president. If you look at Arizona, Donald Trump is up 2.4 points, 2.4% right now today in 2020. It was a tie at this time, five days out, and in 2016, Trump was up by four points in Arizona. So Trump’s pulling better than he was in both of these years in 2020 and 2016. So I think we can safely say that Donald Trump, if everything remains constant, and if the election was today, Donald Trump’s going to carry Arizona, let’s go to the next state. Nevada. Donald Trump is up 0.3%. Is that right? 0.3% in Nevada, again, we look at 2020. Biden was up by four, and in 2016 Trump was up by two. So that’s a close race, too close to call. Probably I would likely not put Nevada in the Trump category right now.

(05:22):

So let’s go to the next state, Wisconsin, part of the blue wall, what they call the blue wall, which includes Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, Wisconsin right now it shows Kamala Harris up by 0.2 percentage points. If you look at 2020, Biden was ahead by 6.7, and in 2016, Clinton was ahead by 5.4. Again, Donald Trump is polling better here in every battleground state and on the national polling than he was in either 2016 or 2020. So right now, Kamala Harris has a small lead in Wisconsin. All right, let’s go to the next state. The dumpster fire of Michigan, right? Kamala Harris is up by 0.4%. Again, 2020, Biden was up by 8.2. Now think about this. She’s pulling terribly compared to 2020, and in 2016, Clint was up by 6.3. So Harris is ahead, just barely in Michigan as of today, five days out to the election.

(06:34):

All right? Next state is the state of Pennsylvania, the all important state. I think the election comes down to Pennsylvania. Trump is up by 0.7%. If you look at 2020, Biden was up by 4.3 and 2016, Clinton up by 3.5. Again, Trump polling better than he did in the last two elections. So if the election were today and these polls are accurate, Trump would carry Pennsylvania. Let’s go to the next state. North Carolina. North Carolina shows Trump up by one percentage 0.1 percentage, 0.1 point 2020. Biden was up by 0.6. In 2016, Trump was up by one percentage point. So Trump is doing what he was doing in 2016. He carried the state ultimately in 2016. All right, next state is the state of Georgia with Trump lost in 2020. Of course, that was the one where allegedly there was a lot of election fraud, but Trump is up there right now by 2.8% and compared to 2020 where Biden was up by 0.4 and in 2016, Trump was up by 5.7.

(07:50):

So he is doing better than he was doing in 2020, not as well as 2016. Alright, so those are the battleground states currently. Now what I’m going to tell you is that I think if I were to predict today, I’m going to say, and I’m going to go to my whiteboard here, kind of like Carl Rove, for all you boomers out there that’ve been around long enough to realize, remember Carl Rove? Carl Rove was the architect of the George W. Bush presidential campaign that led to two terms for George W. Bush. Carl Rove is still on Fox News. Every once in a while he gets out this whiteboard, right? He’s famous for the whiteboard. So I’m going to pull out the whiteboard and I’m going to give you my prediction as of five days out from the election of 2024, and this is it right now. That is Trump 2 81, 281 electoral votes and Harris at 2 57.

(08:46):

That’s my prediction, 2 81, 2 57. I predict that Trump is going to pick Arizona, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia. If he does that, he wins the White House 2, 2 81 to 2 57. That means that Harris is going to pick up the swing states of Nevada, Michigan, and Wisconsin, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin. Now it could go a different way. I think Wisconsin’s up for grabs. It’s possible that Trump might carry that. If he does, it would go to 2 97, 2 41. I don’t think that’s out of the question. I think Trump is going to win the White House. I believe it’ll be 2 81, 2 57, but it might even be 2 97, 2 41. Now, that’s assuming that we have a somewhat fair election, as Steve Bannon has been saying most recently. This needs to be an overwhelming victory for Donald Trump. 2 97 2 2 41 would be an overwhelming electoral victory for Donald Trump, and if it is then any accusations or allegations of voter fraud by the left, which by the way, they contest elections too, by the way.

(10:08):

They did it in 2016 when Donald Trump was elected the first time and they are lawyering up. Boy Mark Elias has been hired by the Harris campaign. He’s that slip and fall sleazeball lawyer that was involved in the, a lot of people would think that was the 2020 election that was stolen from Donald Trump. They’ve hired him and they’ve got lawyers on the ground already suing in some of these states. So who knows how many days it might take. Before we get to a final outcome here, a final vote, it might take a few days, especially in Pennsylvania, doesn’t even start counting their votes until election day. How is that, by the way? I mean, they have early voting. They got mail-in voting. Why can’t they just start counting ’em sooner? It doesn’t make any sense to me other than there’s something nefarious going on here. But anyway, I would say that Donald Trump is going to win the White House 2 81 to 2 57 with the chance that it might go 2 97, 2 41.

(11:09):

For what it’s worth. That is your Ace predictors prediction for the 2024 presidential election. Very important. Donald Trump, in my opinion, needs to win the White House for a couple of reasons. First off, as I’ve said in many occasions here on the show, he is to me a bulwark against tyranny. He would slow down the decay of the country and most importantly, the takeover of our institutions are all the branches of government. Most importantly, our intelligence departments, the Department of Justice, the FBI and all those, and hopefully slowing down their ability or at least possibly even stopping their ability to attack and take on their political opponents and using the instrumentalities of government to bring down their opposition. That’s what we’re facing right now. Pro-lifers are sitting in prison right now because of the Harris Biden administration. Donald Trump could slow that down also in foreign policy.

(12:22):

He’s pledged not to get any more wars, wants to get us out of wars. I’m for that hope many people are, he’d be better on the economy, probably marginally for me. I am not sure. That to me is not the main issue of course. But Donald Trump would do some things in his role as President of the United States as regards to the abortion issue. The first is that he would, more than likely, I hope, and he proved it when he put three justices on the Supreme Court that overturned Roe v. Wade, federal Judges. He can make a big difference when it comes to federal judges, when it comes to the Supreme Court of the United States nominating strict constructionists to the court, which is still important. By the way. We need to hold onto our slim majority there because it could flip the other way on abortion and a lot of other questions.

(13:17):

He can use the bully pulpit, although lately of course he’s been caving on abortion. He would be better than Kamala Harris on abortion. He would sign executive orders that would protect the unborn and he can, if necessary, veto legislation that would come to his desk that would expand abortion on the federal level, which is what they want to do. They want to bring up the Women’s Health Protection Act and Donald Trump would more than likely veto that. That’s my prediction. 2 81, 2 57, Donald Trump takes the White House. Okay, friends, let’s switch gears to the constitutional amendments that are on the ballot on November 5th. I’ve been talking about these in detail over the last several months. There are 10 of them, Florida, South Dakota, Nebraska, Missouri, Nevada, Montana, Arizona, Colorado, Maryland, and New York. I’m going to predict, and I don’t want jinx anything because there’s still time left in all these states between now and November 5th, but I’m going to predict that we are going to win two and lose eight, and of those eight losses, two of ’em are done deals to begin with.

(14:38):

That is Maryland and New York. Abortion’s already legal up to the very moment of birth there, so it doesn’t really matter. But the ones that I think we’re going to be able to prevail in are Florida and South Dakota and Florida, as I’ve been saying, and where we have invested most of our resources here at Created Equal really is the quintessential battle this time, this time around. Why Florida’s a very populous state. Florida, I think there’s like 33 abortion clinics there. Florida has a governor that’s very pro-life. Florida is a battleground. Florida is just a very important state and that’s why it’s important we prevail there. Also, Florida has a 60% threshold, and so if we were to lose Florida, that would be a real gut blow to the gut, if you will, to the pro-life movement and to the babies. So I think we’re going to prevail in Florida.

(15:33):

The most recent polling shows that the no side is ahead 54 to 38, so that’s good. You just have to keep it under 60, right? We will see on election day, the pro side has outspent. That is the Four Amendment four, the ones who are supporting that have outspent the no side, a hundred million dollars to $6 million. So we’ve been terribly outspent there. The difference is we have a governor called Rhonda Sandis who has made this his primary issue this time around in this election. He has gone on the stump, he’s raised money, he’s used the Florida government. That is to create PSAs, public service announcements regarding this amendment. If it were to pass, he’s written up a summary language that’ll appear on the ballot on the day of the election and when you go to cast your ballot. So all these things are working in our fair.

(16:38):

I think we’ll win Florida, South Dakota. It’s razor thin margin right now, and if you would, Mr. Producer, bring that one up. Okay. It shows right now that the no side is at 48% and the S side is at 45. Obviously it’s a very small state. Sioux Falls is the biggest city, but it looks like we might prevail there. I think it’s still a toss up, but I’m going to say that we will win that one. The only one that I guess there’s a chance that we will prevail beyond this would be Nebraska. Nebraska is a very interesting one because there’s actually two initiatives on the ballot. The first is Initiative 4 34, which is the yes, which is the Pro-Abortion Amendment, and then there’s a initiative 4 39 which deals with protecting the unborn before viability, or I’m sorry, after viability. So there’s actually two competing ballot measures here.

(17:42):

One that would protect children after viability, in other words, late term abortion, and one that would basically expand abortion up to birth. So that’s where there’s actually two, one, yes, one for the pro-life side, one against. It’s possible that both of ’em could pass and we’ll see what happens there. But I think in the other states, I think the polling shows and just we are being outspent and everything else, Missouri, Nevada, Montana, Arizona, and Colorado are likely going to go unfortunately in the wrong direction. So where does that leave us here? As I said, I predict that Donald Trump’s going to prevail in the presidential election. Could take days, could take weeks before we find out, because some of these states specifically, for example, Pennsylvania doesn’t even start counting their votes until the day of November 5th in the morning. I mean, they know by the end of the day, you’re probably not going to have an answer, not going to have a winner unless it’s pretty much a blowout.

(18:48):

So it could take days and longer than that before we know. But I think Donald Trump’s going to prevail. I think we’re going to go two for eight on constitutional amendments. So where does that leave us win or lose in the constitutional amendments? Two or eight, what have you. We are losing. I know people don’t want to hear that. We are losing a winnable battle, and a lot of that has to do with the messaging. I have been saying ever since Ohio, that we need to make the main thing, the main thing. We need to talk about abortion and make it the premier issue that we’re dealing with because that’s what this is about. But yet the polling and all the pundits and all the people that supposedly know better say, oh no, no, we can’t talk about abortion and we don’t want to make it about abortion because if we do, we lose.

(19:34):

Well, I got news for you. If we do talk about abortion or we don’t talk about abortion, we’re going to lose. And so I think we need to make the main thing the main thing. And unfortunately in a lot of these states we’re still not doing that and we haven’t learned. So that’s my wrap up again, Donald Trump. I think it’ll prevail 2 81 to 2 57 and we will win two of the 10 Constitutional amendments. So, alright, so what’s the call to action? Call to action here is that there’s still time left for you to volunteer. You can be involved in the Florida Constitutional Amendment battle by going to vote no on four florida.com. It’s not too late to make phone calls. If you live in the state of Florida, it’s not too late to go door to door. So go to vote no on four Florida, that’s vote no on four florida.com and volunteer.

(20:37):

So that’s the one, I mean the main one that we can get involved in, it’s the most important one and that is Florida. Beyond That, friends, we are going to be going on the justice ride that’s coming up very soon to the state of Florida. Win or lose, we’re gone and we’re loading up busloads of young people and taking ’em on the road. And if you have a young person, if you’re a parent of a young person that’s 15 years or older, we look forward to having you bring, have them come on the justice ride. And so that is going to be from February 28th to March 8th in the state of Florida. We start from Columbus and we head to Florida and we go to all the college campuses down there and we train people on the bus and in the classroom and then we take ’em out on the streets. So you can go to justice ride.org, that’s justice ride.org. To find out more, we’d love to have your young person join us on this most important training program. Alright, so there it is. There’s my wrap up. There’s my predictions for the election of November, 2024. We’ll see you next time. God bless you. God bless America and remember America to bless God.

Outro (21:55):

You’ve been listening to Mark Harrington, your radio activist. For more information on how to make a difference for the cause of life, liberty and justice, go to created equal.org.org. To follow mark, go to Mark Harrington show.com. Be sure to tune in next time for your marching orders in the culture war.