Are We Facing a Blowout in November? | Dr. Michael New

*This is an AI generated transcript, and may contain errors*

Mark Harrington (00:00):

It’s time to sound the alarm to blow the trumpet. Why? Because the Pro-abortion movement is poised to pass constitutional amendments, expanding abortion to 5, 6, 7 months beyond viability up to the moment of birth in many states in November of 2024. Today on the program, I’m going to share with you how you can stop that from happening.

(00:37):

Alright, friends, you’ve tuned into the Mark Harrington show, and you can find out more by going to mark harrington.org. That’s mark harrington.org. You can follow us on all the social media platforms as well as we are on all the podcasting platforms as well. And if you do listen to the program, please leave a comment, a review and share it with your friends if you would. We’re trying to get more people to listen because we are facing a blowout, possible blowout in November if we don’t turn things around when it relates to these constitutional amendments, which there could be up to 12 of those this year. Of course, Ohio was the only one last year in November of 2023, issue one passed in Ohio, 57% to 43%, and that was a shock wave, if you will, that went across the nation, especially the pro-life movement. And I’m afraid that, I don’t know if we’ve woken up yet, seriously.

(01:40):

So we’re facing possibly up to 12 of these states that are facing these constitutional amendments. And according to the most recent polling, and one of the reasons why I’m doing this program today is because of the polling that has come out recently in states like Florida, Arizona, Missouri, South Dakota, and others showing that the pro-abortion people are ahead in many of these states and most, if not all right now. And so if the election was today, I dare to say that we’d lose every single one of them. Now, you might be thinking, oh, you’re an alarmist. You’re freaking out. This isn’t good. We don’t want to panic. Well, I’m not pushing the panic button friends. I’m just basically saying it’s time to get involved. If you’re a pro-life activist and you’re out doing other things, and they’re probably all good things, right? It’s time to stop what you’re doing and jump in to the battle because this is for all the marbles.

(02:41):

Now, I’ve been saying that for a long time. I said about Ohio, and I was right about that too. But now we’re looking at, we’re O for seven. We could be O for 19 by the end of this year. That would be a fatal blow, in my opinion, to the pro-life movement. I’m not sure we could recover from that. And so if you’re sitting there and you’re thinking, I’m pro-life, I’m Christian, I do my thing, I go to the abortion mill, I pray. I post social media graphics, whatever it is that you do, I work at, I volunteer at a local crisis pregnancy or a pregnancy resource center. All these things are good, but I’m telling you what come November, if we lose every one of these, I mean, it could be game over for us friends. The idea that we will be able to protect unborn children legally, meaning past protections to keep unborn children from being killed in America, almost for all intents and purposes, goes out the window.

(03:56):

Now, you might be saying, well, what about states of Alabama and other Louisiana, some of these other conservative states where they’re outlawing abortion and there’s no constitutional amendment expanding it. That’s true. You’re going to have abortion free states. That’s true. But the number of abortion havens is going to go up. And that means more than likely, the death count goes up, the body count goes up, and that’s what it’s all about. That’s what it’s all about. And so now Ohio is a destination state. Many of these states, if passed, would become a destination state, and we might find ourself in a worse situation. If it’s all possible, you might think to yourself, well, how could it be worse than it was under the regime of Roe v Wade? Well, it could be. It could be. And we’re going to find out this year and in the coming years what this all looks like.

(04:52):

So that’s why I’m sounding the alarm today. I’m saying it’s not too late, but it’s time. It’s time to jump in. And you might be in whatever state you’re in, you might be in a state where abortion is no longer legal and you’re thinking, oh, we’re good. You got to get rid of that thinking. Here’s why. Because these constitutional amendments aren’t just local. They aren’t just about that state. In other words, if you live in Florida, it’s not just about Florida. If you live in Missouri, it’s not simply about Missouri Live in Arizona, Colorado, South Dakota. I could go on with the list. It’s not just about your state, although that’s where you need to fight. But if you live in a state where there’s not a constitutional amendment on the ballot, you need to think of this as not just a local battle that is up to those people who live in that state to make it happen to defeat these measures.

(05:51):

This is not just a local battle, it’s not just a state battle. This is a national referendum on abortion. And if we see 12 states fall to the abortion lobby, that’s a national issue. That’s not a state issue. And so I exort you to consider it a national fight. So no matter where you are in the United States, you can make a difference. You can travel to one of these states and do door to door efforts. You can make phone calls. You can fund these campaigns as well. And that’s why I’m calling on all pro-life Americans and leaders of pro-life organizations to jump in now before it’s too late. And what I’ve noticed is after the overturning of Roe versus Wade and the subsequent defeats that we have seen in states like Michigan and Ohio, the pro-life movement was caught flatfooted. And now we’re looking at two years of the anniversary of the Dobbs decision coming up here in a week or two on June 24th of this year, we are going to recognize to Mark, if you will, the overturning of Roe v.

(07:10):

Wade and the passage of Dobbs v Jackson, which sent the issue of abortion back to the state legislatures. And a lot of us are still celebrating the overturning a row. Now, I, for one, will mark that day as a landmark decision for us in the pro-life movement, but I’m not going to celebrate a thing. You know why? Because right now we’re losing friends. We’re losing the time for celebrating the overturning of Roe versus Wade is over it’s time. If not, it’s been time that we jump in and fight these constitutional amendments or else we’re going to find ourself this year, possibly oh, for 12 or something like that. That would be a devastating blow. So it’s no longer time for us to sit back and celebrate the overturning of Roe versus way. And so I am exhorting you to get involved and friends, if you will, and Mr.

(08:03):

Producer, if you pop this up, we have created a graphic basically for you. And this will be in the description also in the description of the show on all the social media platforms in which we’re posting the program. But I have this graphic that basically outlines and shares with you every single state that is facing a Constitution memo. Some of them are for sure. In other words, the signatures have been ratified or whatever, and it’s on the ballot. And some of these, it’s not on the ballot yet, but it’s very probable, very likely that it will be. We’re talking about Arizona, we’re talking about Arkansas, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, South Dakota, North Dakota, Colorado, Maryland, and Florida who have either it’s on the ballot or it’s likely going to be on the ballot. And what I’ve done is listed the organizations or the coalitions in those states to which you can contact and get involved.

(09:08):

You can simply get involved financially by supporting these efforts. You can contact them and say, Hey, I’m willing to do phone banking. I’m willing to get out the information that you need to those that I know in these states, I’m willing to travel. And that’s what’s going to take out of town people to come in sometimes out of state, even to go to Door-to-Door, to do the grassroots. It’s necessary to defeat these measures. So we’ve created this graphic for you. This is our best estimation, if you will, of the ones that might be on the ballot here in November. And we’re making that available, of course, created equal. As you know, if you follow us here on the Mark Harrington show and you follow created equal on social media or you’re part of our email list, you’ll know that we’re very involved in this, that we are involved in many of these states, most of them, not all, but most of them we’ve been in contact with one way or the other.

(10:11):

We’re involved in Missouri, Florida, Colorado, Arizona, South Dakota, either as a consultant or actually lending our hand in allowing them to use the volunteer portal. It was so effective here in Ohio in organizing the grassroots effort. And so we are now involved in many of these states. We’re involved in sharing with them the lessons learned or the takeaways as someone myself who was on the inside of the coalition here in Ohio and saw what happened that was positive, that worked and the things that didn’t work. And we’re sharing that with these states, which includes some of the ads that we created and making those available through our good friend and colleague, Alex Toro, a strategy group. And so we’re very involved in, I dare to say that there’s probably not anyone in the country that knows as much as I do about what’s going on in these Constitutional amendment battles, and therefore, I’m a good resource for you.

(11:15):

So friends, let me just say again, I’m sounding the alarm. I’m blowing the trumpet. This is a clarion call to every Bible believing Christian pro-lifer out there to say, the time is now. It’s not too late. The time is now to weigh in on these constitutional amendments in these particular states. And you can do it no matter where you live in the country. You can give financially, go see, take a look at this graphic. You can email ’em and say, Hey, I want to make phone calls. I want to go to door todo. What can I do to help? You can pray and you can just let know raise awareness because this is the mother of all battles. We are not going to face this type of challenge or threat from the pro-abortion movement ever again. There will never be as many constitutional amendments on the ballot like there are in 2024.

(12:11):

It’s just not going to happen again. It’s not going to happen in 25. Not going to happen in 26. More than likely, they are aggressively trying to pass these. And as I said before, we’re oh for seven, and we could go, oh, for 12 or how many are going to be in November? Now, I don’t want to be Johnny Raincloud here and say All hope is lost or anything. And we’re going to be talking about how you can actually get involved. And there is some hope, obviously, to what we can do because we serve a living God that is capable of making radical changes in people’s hearts and minds and bringing about revival if need be to make this happen. But right now, it looks like we’re behind the eight ball and it’s time to get involved. So friends, again, take a look at this graphic.

(13:01):

We’ll have it in the description for the Mark Harrington show on all our social media platforms. And I beg of you, it’s time to get involved or else we’re going to wake up on November 6th and wonder what happened. And it might be seriously, it might be the death blow to the pro-life movement, which by the way is bad enough, but it really is the death blow to millions of unborn children who now will no longer have any legal protections in these states. So friends get involved. I exhort you in the name of Jesus, get involved in fighting and defeating these constitutional amendments. My guest is Dr. Michael New, and he is the associate professor at Bush School of Business at the Catholic University of America in Washington DC and also an associate scholar of the, I’m sorry. Yeah, the Charlotte Lozier Institute. Michael’s been willing to take a few minutes today. I know he is at University of Notre Dame teaching today at the Vita Foundation or Institute, I think it is. Michael, thanks for taking the time.

Dr. Michael New (14:13):

Thanks having me. Much appreciated.

Mark Harrington (14:16):

The reason why Mike, and we’re good friends and known each other for years, and I appreciate all your work analyzing all the data that comes in regarding when it comes to legislation and polling and that kind of thing. I think you’re one of the best, if not the best in the country when it comes to this. You posted a article, if you will, or blog on life news that caught my eye, and it’s entitled, polls show huge battles on abortion, up to birth amendments, pro-life. Americans must stop them. And if you don’t, the first part of the program, I kind of went through where we’re at with the polling, and as you know, I live here in Ohio. We saw the issue one pass last November, which was unfortunate of course. And I’ve been sounding the alarm long before that, that the pro-life movement is facing a threat that we’ve never faced before in that these constitutional amendments are now passing in some of these states.

(15:18):

And if things don’t change, we could see a run of the table even possibly this year of up to 12, possibly 12 of these constitutional amendments. And you outline what’s going on, if you would, from your perspective, give us an idea of the landscape across the country, what you see happening. And then I want to ask you, obviously I’ve been really concerned that we’re not engaging, that we’re not paying attention enough to this and that we’re going about our normal business, which is important work no matter what we do, pro-life wise, but we’re losing the battle and we’ve got to be willing to reallocate resources, time, money, effort, to defeating these or else we’re going to be in a really bad position come November 6th, 2024. So if you would outline where you see us standing with these constitutional amendments across the country.

Dr. Michael New (16:12):

Yeah, sure. I mean, it’s no secret that our opponents, people who support legal abortion, they’ve made aggressive use of direct democracy since the deposition and their records so far has been good. They’ve succeeded in winning these state ballot propositions in Vermont, in California, in Michigan, Ohio, and Kansas. And this current election cycle, there’s going to be propositions that would put legal abortion in the state constitution in about 12 states. And these include places like Missouri, Arkansas, South Dakota, Florida, Maryland, and several other states. There’s been some polling that’s come out lately. And the mainstream media is I think giving us the impression that the other side is doing extremely well and that they are, in fact, may well run the table in November. And in all these states, I think poor Rs need to be concerned, but I’m not despairing. I think when you look at the polling data a bit more carefully, a different picture emerges.

(17:14):

One thing I would say that at this stage, when the campaigns haven’t started, the important matric to look at isn’t the lead, but the level of support. One thing we saw from both Michigan and Ohio is it support for these abortion ballot propositions pretty much remain caused it. Almost every poll ticket in Michigan and every poll ticket in Ohio showed that between 55% and 60% of people plan to vote for these abortion ballot pro positions. And that matched what happened on election day. They prevailed by 57%. So when you look at what’s happening in the states, they pull it from Florida and Florida shows about 56% of people according to the polling averages, are going to vote for this abortion ballot proposition. Well, in Florida, you need 60%, not 50. So there’s a good chance to move. In Florida, Missouri, only 44% right now are playing on voting in favor. That’s beneath the 50% threshold. In South Dakota, I think the recent poll said 53%. So a prolife victory is within striking distance there. So again, I think the important metric isn’t the lead. It’s a level of support, and we look at the level of support. Some prolife victories are in fact within reach.

Mark Harrington (18:21):

And so what do you mean by level of support? You say here that the level support versus the, in other words, that’s the key metric, but is it the level of support showing that they are waiting in some of these states?

Dr. Michael New (18:44):

Well, essentially when the polls ask questions, they offer three choices. Do you play to vote favor of the abortion amendment? Do you plan to vote against it or don’t? And a lot of people say they don’t know. And one thing I’ve just studied direct democracy, I have a PhD in political science. There’s an old saying, the best day for any ballot proposition, it’s its first day. Everything sounds good on paper until you hear the counter arguments. So typically, most of those people who voted undecided are going to flip to no. So essentially a poll at this stage of the campaign isn’t terribly helpful. People are thinking about their summer vacation, they’re not thinking about the election. They’re not thinking ballot propositions. So a lot of people just simply say they don’t know. So what we see in other states is that all the, I don’t knows, eventually do flip to no once they hear some of the counter arguments. So that’s why I say level support is the important metric, not the lead. So again, if these things are not poll, if they’re currently pulling the threshold they need for victory, there’s a good chance that pro-lifers can in fact prevail.

Mark Harrington (19:48):

Okay, I see what you’re saying. Especially in a state like Missouri where 19% are undecided, that’s a lot of the mushy middle that we can, like you say, they generally gravitate to the no position. I want to ask you this, Michael, you saw this this week, which was pretty alarming to me. I was like, whoa, that can’t be true. 69%, according to the Fox poll, said they’d vote yes in the state of Florida to enshrine abortion up the Mary of birth. What do you think of that poll, because I’m getting a lot of questions about it. I know you’ve probably averaged it in when we were saying 56% of Floridians who would vote yes currently, which is under the threshold, but 69% is a crazy number. What do you think about that poll?

Dr. Michael New (20:33):

Well, I think that poll’s moving an outlier. There’ve been six state wide polls taken, and we look at the average, it comes up to 56. So you can always find a screw pole with a bad sample or a small sample. I think 69% is too high. I think an average just tends to be a lot more accurate. So I think the 56% figure is accurate. I’d also inform your listeners that the campaign really has not started in earnest. One good thing about Florida is that, again, they need 60% to win, not 50. And also Governor DeSantis is going to try to spend some political capital to win. His team is really out there trying to defeat this. Their opposition is not perfunctory. He’s willing to raise money to stop this. So I think that does bode well for Florida.

Mark Harrington (21:15):

Yeah, I agree. And Florida is one of the key battlegrounds, of course, for the presidential race, as is some of these other states that are facing these constitutional amendment issues. Arizona being one for an example, Nevada Colorado’s out New York, Maryland, those aren’t in play. How do you see the presidential election playing when it comes to these constitutional amendments in some of these key battlegrounds?

Dr. Michael New (21:39):

Yeah, I think the terrain for pro-lifers in 2024 is going to be a lot better than it was in 2023 and 2022 for a couple of reasons. First, some of these ballot propositions are on the ballot in conserved states like Missouri, almost always. It’s Republican, statewide, South Dakota, Arkansas. That’s one thing. Secondly, Donald Trump’s on the ballot. Anytime there’s a presidential election, people are more likely to turn out. So I think a lot of the people in these states who are excited to vote from Donald Trump who are going to plan to vote for Donald Trump, these are fairly natural pro-life voters. So I think that President Trump’s presence on the ballot, it will help pro-lifers. It’ll generate more turnout amongst conservatives, amongst Republicans, and it may allow pro-life I to defeat these valid propositions.

Mark Harrington (22:22):

Well, friends, we don’t want you to despair. We look at these polls and you might be thinking, oh my gosh, we’re in trouble. Hopefully you look at the polls and you say, well, this is my opportunity to get involved, and I’m going to be providing you a list of these coalitions, the names of these coalitions in each of these states. So you can involve yourself in the door to door, the phone banking and financial support. There’s things you can be doing no matter where you live in the United States, and this needs to be a national referendum on abortion. We’ve got 12 of these possibly this year. I don’t know if we’re going to face a year like this again. Michael, what do you think? I mean, there’s 12 of them now. How many would come in 25 or 26, do you know? Well,

Dr. Michael New (23:03):

Eventually the other state’s going to run, other side’s going to run out of states. I mean, not every state has direct

Mark Harrington (23:07):

Democracy. Texas

Dr. Michael New (23:08):

Does not. Many states of the south do not. So they are going to try to probably run these campaigns in states where you can’t use direct democracy. We can put certain things on the ballot by getting enough people to sign petitions, but eventually the other side is just going to run out of states and run out of rule.

Mark Harrington (23:27):

And we’ll probably see that in the next two to five years. But this is a big yearly. If they succeed in getting it on the ballot in 12 states, that’s going to be something that we’ve never seen before, unprecedented in the pro-life battle. So friends, my friend and colleague, Dr. Martin or Dr. Michael New has my guest today. He is the assistant professor at Bush School of Business at Catholic University and also associate scholar at the Charlotte Lozier Institute. Michael, thank you for taking the time. I appreciate your insights here. Keep us informed. I love the work that you do. You’re the kind of guy that can take all the data and statistics and all the polling and distill it down to something we can all understand, and you play a very important role in our movement. So thank you for your work.

Dr. Michael New (24:17):

Thanks for the kind words. Much appreciated.

Mark Harrington (24:20):

Well, friends, I hope you enjoyed the interview with Dr. Michael New from the Catholic University of America, giving his take on the battle in these states over the constitutional amendments. I have to say, I don’t share his optimism, but you won’t be surprised by that probably because I tend to see things a little differently in some respects. But I really do appreciate his perspective here. And there is a silver lining, I guess when you look at how he sees this. And that is by the number of support, the supportive number. And there still are a lot of oats out there to get in a lot of these states. So I’m just trying to sound the alarm because I see the storm clouds are gathering for November, and unless we get active now, I’m afraid they’re going to run the table. We could lose all of these this year.

(25:10):

I think we’ve got a good shot in several of them. We’re not going to win ’em all, and I pray to God we don’t lose ’em all and friends. So what you can do is you can go to the description page on Facebook or any of the other social media platforms in which we post the show, and we will have this graphic up that basically shows you all the coalitions that are operating in these individual states and how you can get plugged in because it’s going to take every one of us to get active in order to defeat these. And as I said, we’re not going to face another year like this probably ever again. And so this is really an important year for us, 2024 on November 4th. So friends, thanks for tuning in. Get active. Let’s get going on these constitutional amendments and let’s see some victory in November. We’ll see you next time. God bless you. God bless America. And remember America. Bless God.

Outro (26:08):

You’ve been listening to Mark Harrington, your radio activist. For more information on how to make a difference for the cause of life, liberty and justice, go to created equal.org.org. To follow mark, go to Mark Harrington show.com. Be sure to tune in next time for your marching orders in the culture war.